Thoughts of Barbaro

A couple of weeks ago, I brought a guy friend to Lone Star Park. Now this particular friend, who loves golf, motorcycles, buxom women, and excessive amounts of beer (and not necessarily in that order), is new to racing. I introduced him to simplified wagering and chart reading, and for his first time at the race track, he cashed in more winning tickets than either me or my husband. He was definitely smitten with the sport. He ventured a query on possibly wagering on the upcoming Preakness: What should he bet?

"Barbaro's going to win. But he's going to be hammered on the tote board so why toss out $10 to make one dollar? I'd bet a $2 Win on the next 5 horses just in case he has an off day and comes in second or something dumb like that."

Or something dumb like that ... turned out to be a horrific and potentially fatal injury to the Derby winner that many of us already had bestowed the Triple Crown. It's a dramatic event like this that makes me want to seal my mouth shut with a metal plate and 23 titanium screws.

It's taken me a couple of days to regroup and actually share my thoughts. So many other writers and bloggers have done a wonderful job posting; thoughts and hopes and updates and equine veterinarian education for the general populous. Maybe I'm feeling a bit like our friend, Patrick, who wrote:

I'm not going to say racing goes on because I really don't think it does after something like this, nor should it.

I stopped watching the Preakness the instant I heard that Barbaro had pulled up. I did not even know who crossed the wire first for at least a couple of minutes. All I could hear was the deafening sounds of shock and silence from thousands of people, followed by hearts breaking.

The veterinarians and staff of the New Bolton Center are top notch. As horse racing fans, players, trainers, owners, jockeys, and the guys who muck the stalls know, the outcome to an injury like Barbaro's are generally not positive, nor does an injury like this one receive so much Herculean effort. We are all hoping for the best. We are all hoping for recovery. We are all hoping for the 'Happy Ending' which would be more valuable than any winning wager.

Bob Baffert Speaks

Bob Baffert on Wanna Runner:

"We're just having fun with him. It's fun to go to different tracks."

"I've always thought he was a nice horse, but he's just getting better ... We're going to take our time with him and make some money with him." [DRF]

Wanna Runner had previously won the $600,000 WinStar Derby at Sunland. Saturday, he won the $300,000 Walmac Lone Star Derby (gr. III). His earnings are $566,950. Yes, fun. Yes, he's making money. Making money for Mr. Baffert and Mr. Pegram.

Meanwhile ...

Wanna Runner, the odds-on 1-2 favorite, ridden by Victor Espinoza and carrying 122 pounds, covered 1 1/16 miles on a fast main track in 1:43.71 and paid $3, $2.60 and $2.10. [LSP press release]

Yes, fun. No, I made little money.

So folks, sing praise for the glory of the undercard! A nice little turf starter handicap which was fun to dabble in cheap exactas and dime superfectas, subsequently lined the inside of my knock-off Louis Vuitton handbag nicely. It also demonstrated to my husband, who was with me at the time and it should be noted that he is not a frequent track visitor because it requires him to wear something other than boxer shorts and his free 93.3 The Bone t-shirt as well as he has to pay more than $2.50 for beer, that I can actually successfully handicap and wager wisely.

Oops. My humble apologies. This is not about me. It's about Bob.

Another notable quote from Bob Baffert,

"It was delicious." [Dallas Morning News]

He would be referring to the Whataburger cheeseburger that he consumed the previous evening. One would think that if you have a horse with a half-million dollar bank roll, Whataburger would not be involved in your dinner plans, unless of course it would be breakfast because they do make excellent breakfast taquitos.

Regardless of whatever amount of money I won or whatever dinner fare Bob Baffert had, it was fun to have him in town. I had even hoped to conduct a short interview, as it is thoroughly documented that I am an expert at obtaining hard-hitting and factual information from those involved in the sport of horse racing. Unfortunately, this was not to be. But I know that he'll be back! Yes, I know this because he sweeps into town and wins the all stakes races! And when he comes back I shall be waiting for him where I know I shall find him. Whataburger.

And hopefully, I won't have picante sauce from my sausage and egg breakfast taquito dribbling down my chin.

Baffert Attempts to Win a Derby This Weekend

Before I begin my musings and anecdotes regarding the various aspects of horse racing, I need to take care of a little business.

Note to Stan: Yes, I realize that I have not taken any time over the past week to sit down and write my racing diatribe. You must remember that I have two small children, two jobs, and I am now in the midst of a real estate venture. I know that you have accused me of "just sitting on the back patio, slurping down frozen margaritas" but rest assured, this is not the case; I'm not shirking my responsibilities as a serious blogger. And yes, I realize that I should have listened to you as well as Patrick and put Barbaro on top. And yes, I should have listened to you that Steppenwolfer should have been taken a little bit more seriously when wheeling out my trifecta. And yes, I shall now pay just a little bit more attention to you when you casually mention your racing selections and complain less when you use my printer. By the way, you swiped my favorite pen. Please return it.

This weekend, Bob Baffert has the opportunity to win the Derby. That would be the Walmac Lone Star Derby (gr. III). He's sending out Wanna Runner. They will make quite a pair: Baffert in his cool shades and Wanna Runner in his cool blinkers. Wanna Runner won the WinStar Derby, however, he'll be facing a tougher field here. Bob Holthus has Lawyer Ron's stablemate, Red Raymond, here in North Texas, and somehow he doesn't get the respect that he deserves on the tote board. Which, in my opinion, is fine with me because I take this colt seriously and he, in turn, as provided me, the bettor, with serious returns. And then, of course, there is always Lone-Star-Park's-Most-Dangerous-Trainer Steve "Whoohoo" Asmussen. He will be saddling Admiral's Arch as well as Rain On Monday. Never estimate him here in his backyard.

Speaking of backyard's, the EDS Byron Nelson Championship (that would be the PGA for all you NYRA, NTRA, TTA, AABB, and PTA folks) is in town this weekend. And then, of course, there are the Mavericks and the Spurs. Quite the Mother's Day weekend!

Pass Me That Mint Julep

Date: Friday, May 5, 2006
Time: Lunch Hour
Objective: Kentucky Derby Advance Wagers

For the past couple of days, I scribbled notations of my wagering strategy for the Derby. I encouraged fellow science-type people to get involved by making a little wager or perhaps contributing to a group superfecta wheel. I reviewed past performances just in case I missed something - an angle or a gimmick. I read the perspectives of other individuals who are a lot more in the know more than me. I conferred with my dog ("Okay, Dutchess, bark once for Brother Derek, bark twice for Bob and John"). I asked my husband ("Ghostzapper"). And I finally decided that I had a real plan and today was the day to implement that plan.

Sweetnorthernsaint still remains on top, however I surely doubt that we will see odds of 10-1 tomorrow. Point Determined also remains in the mix, with the possibility to win. However, after reading Alan at LATG, Bob and John got a play into the group superfecta wheel. Bob and John does not seem to have the touts in his corner ...er, gate ... and there's a good possibility that he'll have some good value.

Suprisingly, I'm not hearing a lot about Lawyer Ron; his bandwagon has gotten seemingly quiet. I still like him, so there. I still bet on him, so there. He's still wheeled from top to bottom on the superfecta, so there. And wouldn't be nice if the silence of touts is indicative of producing bigger odds??

So tomorrow, I will have a pocketful of wagers, and I can just sit back and relax and enjoy the races and the mint juleps. No, strike that. It is noisy and crowded with few seats available at Lone Star Park on Derby Day. And besides, it's Cinco de Mayo around these parts so I believe a frozen margarita would be more in order. I'm thinking that mint is green and margaritas are green so there must be some kind of direct relationship. Anyway, pass me some sort of cool liquid refreshment. I'm ready!

Kentucky Derby Handicapping, Simplified

Weekends around this here are usually boisterous. Between the Saturday morning cartoons and the yardwork and the kids constantly rummaging through the kitchen pantry and the phone ringing and the washing machine rumbling, I truly look forward to an escape. I mean, who wouldn't?

Last weekend's escape was most productive:

(1) I successfully located and purchased a pair of Dora the Explorer sandals that light up for my 4-year-old daughter, Alice. I'm still pondering her affinity to a lemon-shaped head kid who's best friend is a goofy monkey that lacks a sense of shoe fashion. I'm sure if there were a horse named DoraTheExplorer running in the Kentucky Derby, I would be required to make some kind of wager on Alice's behalf.

(2) I found a new house and made an offer.

(3) I had a good afternoon at the track. The Texas Mile, the Beaugay Handicap, and Calder's Ponche Handicap were all nice scores, as was a claiming race at Churchill Downs - I couldn't even tell you the names of the horses in the exacta.

Normally, I would take the time to sit here, drink my coffee, attempt to pass myself off as some hot-shot handicapping genius, and gloat. However, that is not to be. Just in case you are not in front of a calendar, it should be stressed that today is Wednesday. Not any Wednesday, but the Wednesday before the Kentucky Derby presented by Yum! Brands. Post positions will be drawn. Time to get down to business. Unless, of course, you are Steve Haskin or Mike Watchmaker, whose Kentucky Derby analysis, handicapping, and musings are on the brain since they staggered home from their respective New Year's Eve celebrations.

Last year I fell into that trap. I hovered over every statistic, read every review, ingested a variety of perspectives, in my effort to put together the ultimate winning ticket. Pffft. I should have just followed my girlfriend, Laura's, handicapping technique, and just "bet on the gray."

The previous year's derby had so been easy. I had watched and wagered on Smarty Jones since his performance in the Count Fleet; he was a no-brainer. I based my entire handicapping simply on personal observation.

So this year, I'm not reading Steve Haskin. I'm ignoring Jim Mazur. My ingenuity and intuition will be completely comprised of observation. Plus I'm going to make a little offering to my Lucky Buddha.

So where does personal observation lead me?

Lawyer Ron. Very versatile. He's run in full fields and in races where the crowds have swelled over 70,000, which will come in handy because he may have the ability to ignore the raucous infield crowd and focus on the race. He also wants to win, whether he's off the pace or in front. Maybe his Beyer figures are light, however, in my possible scenario, Sinister Minister and Sharp Humor will want to control a fast pace and get caught up in a speed duel, with Brother Derek potentially getting involved as well. Their tanks will empty and Lawyer Ron would have the ability to pass his tiring rivals.

Sweetnorthernsaint. I actually like him best. He ran a nice Illinois Derby. He could also benefit with the Sinister Minister/Sharp Humor/Brother Derek pace-race. And secretly, I would also like to see a gelding win because it irritates me to see great young horses (read: Smarty Jones and Afleet Alex) cease racing because the family jewels are worth skillions of dollars.

Point Determined. I have to use a Baffert horse because if I don't, I'll get screwed. He ran a good second to Brother Derek in the Santa Anita Derby. A little more real estate and a good kick in the stretch might be satisfactory. I also like Rafael Bejarano on board. Not only is he a good jockey, I like to say his name. It sounds so sexy.

So Saturday's plans are coming together, although if I were to dabble in a superfecta, it would require a little more visualization and creative handicapping, even research. Or an extra offering to Lucky Buddha.