Okay, folks. Raise your hands if you made a wager in the Kentucky Derby Futures.
Not me. No way. I didn’t make a wager because it seems a little difficult so early in the year to gauge the potential field. And I also think that it is tantamount to a sucker bet. The horses that have clearly demonstrated their talents such as First Samurai and Stevie Wonderboy offer no value for a future wager so early in the year (7-1 and 8-1 respectively). And intriguingly enough, horses that haven’t run since last spring, like Half Ours (33-1), have shorter odds than horses that are already stakes winners in 2006. El Camino Real Derby (gr. III) winner, Cause to Believe has final odds of 59-1. Aventura winner, Doctor Dechard has final odds of 68-1. Apparently, all the Steve “This is the Year” Asmussen believers are on the Private Vow (14-1) bandwagon, and are ignoring the talented Doc.
Then of course, there is the favored at 3-1 – All Other 3YO’s . Some yahoo in Vegas bet $10,000 on this betting interest. Really folks. If you truly think that Catcominatcha is going to duplicate his Iroquois (gr. III) win and subsequently win the 2006 Kentucky Derby, don’t you think that you can get better odds on him on May 6th?
Admittedly, there were a couple of “prospects” that I might have willingly plunked down a couple of bucks so early in the year. The final odds for Achilles of Troy were at 26-1, with the payoff being $54.40 should he win the Kentucky Derby. He looked quite impressive winning the Count Fleet. Lawyer Ron, at 21-1 (payoff at $44.00) seemed also like a realistic possibility after watching his last two races.
But it’s still early in the year. Plenty of horses haven’t even made their 2006 debut. Although the first pool did not look too inviting, I usually have a tendency to dive into the second pool.