Wednesday, October 24, 2007

Breeders' Cup on a Dime

I know that I’m supposed to be regaling all of you with hardcore analysis of the Breeders’ Cup races, but really, what could I offer that smarter, far more well-informed writers aren’t already offering? I’m going to leave the race analysis to the professionals.

I could have written that. Instead, brand new TBA member, Teresa, who writes Brooklyn Backstretch, saved me the trouble and wrote it. I simply lifted it off her blog and put it on mine. There are some very informed individuals that are pouring over the Breeders' Cup program, crunching out a variety of scenarios, and providing top-notch analysis. I would not be one of those individuals.

Besides, nobody really visits this blog because they want serious racing information and expert handicapping.

However, it is Breeders' Cup. New venue. New races. New trainer listed for Patrick Biancone entries. And a new addition to the wagering menu: The Dime Superfecta.

Superblogger and DRF columnist, Steven Crist, recently wrote an article regarding the dime superfecta and even included a couple helpful tables with the costs. One strategy would be a superfecta box. Box 4 horses and it costs only $2.40. A 5 horse box is $12.00. Hit the ALL button for the NetJets Mile and the 14 horse box will cost you a mere $2,402.40.

The other strategy illustrated is that of a part wheel where one horse is selected to win over 3 to 13 others. The dime part wheel cost of 3 horses is only $0.60; 4 horses only $1.20; 5 horses for $6.00. The NetJets Mile with Excellent Art keyed to win over ALL will only cost $171.60.

For cheap bettors such as myself, the part wheel works well. However, I prefer not to limit myself to single winner. And I refuse to hit the ALL button because what fun is that?

So, how do I bet the dime superfecta?

I start with two horses for the Win. Basically, my exacta. I key my exacta into all 4 positions on my superfecta wheel. For Place, I add one more horse, usually a horse that has a good price because if they actually hit, it makes for a nice return, even if the favorite wins. In the third and fourth positions, I add 2 more horses so there will be a total of 5. Cost of my 5 horse part wheel is $2.40. And I get to keep the fun of handicapping the race.

For example, let's take a look at one of my favorite races, Emirates Airline Filly & Mare Turf:

PostHorseTrainerML Odds
1All My Loving (IRE)Aidan O'Brien15-1
2Honey RyderTodd Pletcher 9-2
3Nashoba's KeyCarla Gaines3-1
4Passage of Time (GB)Henry Cecil7-2
5Wait a WhileTodd Pletcher4-1
6Lahudood (GB)Kiaran McLaughlin10-1
7Argentina (IRE)Bobby Frankel12-1
8Timarwa (IRE)John Oxx20-1
9DanzonPatrick Biancone12-1
10ArravaleMacDonald Benson30-1
11Simply Perfect (GB)Jeremy Noseda 15-1
12Precious KittenBobby Frankel30-1

I like Nashoba's Key and Honey Rider for the win, and I'll key them throughout the superfecta because if I think that they can win, then I'm confident that one or both will hit the board. However, odds will be a little short. Therefore I shop around, looking for a little value for the Place position: Argentina, morning line of 12-1. She's run some nice races, although she has not won since March 2005, but she's proven at the distance and has been on the board in a number of G1 and G2 races, and she should be a good price. The last two horses that I'll include on the bottom of my dime superfecta are Lahudood and Passage of Time.

This is how my $2.40 dime superfecta ticket will look:

    2 3
    2 3 7
    2 3 4 6 7
    2 3 4 6 7

All of the Breeders' Cup races will offer dime superfecta wagering. And a few of the superfectas that have been paid out over the past few years have been remarkable, such as the 2004 BC Mile at Lone Star Park. Singletary, Antonius Pius, et. al. paid a whopping $107,388 on a $2 superfecta wager. On a dime wager, that would have been $5,369.40. Not too bad for 10-cents.

1 comment:

Teresa said...

Opened your blog this morning and thought, "Hey, that sounds familiar!" Thanks for the "ad" and good luck with those superfectas. I tried them when Belmont instituted them this fall without any success, but I just love the idea that I can box four horses for $2.40. Am looking forward to playing with them on Saturdya.