Thursday, August 31, 2006

Success at Saratoga is a Nightmare Affair

A very wise and handsome man who drives around in a 1993 Subaru with no air-conditioning and a large quantity of old Big Mac wrappers on the floorboards, recently provided me with some notable facts that I thought was pertinent to one's ability to handicap horse races,
It takes 43 muscles to frown but only 17 to smile. It takes absolutely no muscles to look stupid.

I have been busy over the past week ... Busy kicking myself for being a complete dolt in my wagering strategy for the Travers' weekend. It was easy. I should have just put up the bucks, coughed on the chalk dust, collected my loot, and pretended that I was a genius. But no. In my quest to secure a potentially sizeable portion of the $1M NTRA Pick 4, I got carried away, wheeling in longshots that would provide some value if, in some strange voo-doo kind of way, they actually beat the likes of Henny Hughes or Bernardini. And if you are a wheeling-n-dealing Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 individual, you know that when you get carried away or you are not paying attention to the cost of the ticket or you are busy chasing the 4-year-old giggling child who you had to bring along with you and you hit Print Ticket before you are really ready, the cost of the wager can get out of hand. And eventually, that $1 wager turns into a $16 wager which in turn only pays a paltry $29 for all of the hard work you did and you then begin to question the value of playing the multi-race wagers when your Granny always warned you that they're just sucker bets.


Saturday, one of my ol' reliables is racing: Nightmare Affair. I have been following this big gray horse since his first race and he generally never lets me down, considering that he wins 44% of the time (66% ITM). When he won the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder last month at odds of 14-1, you better believe that it was a nice payday. I figured that I would never have the opportunity to see odds like that again in his career. However, it seems I have figured wrong. Nightmare Affair is turning up in Saratoga, racing in the Forego Handicap. I'm skeptical of his chances. Oh sure, he's racing against some of the same horses he beat in Calder, such as Pomeroy, but that's because it was at Calder. Nightmare Affair wins at Calder but ship him a few miles across town to Gulfstream, he loses. And now he's shipping to New York ...

6 comments:

Wise and Handsome Man said...

They're not Big Mac wrappers - it's Whataburger.

Joe Coker said...

Pick 4 - I think you have to be able to to single at least one race to pay make worth the wager...

I had an $8 ticket ready to bet on the Arlington millions day

Race 1 - Vanderbilt - Spa
5- WarFront
6 - Bishop Court Hill

Race 2 - Beverly D - AP
1 - Gorella
7 - Live Life

Race 3 - Sword Dancer
2- Relaxed Gesture
4 - Go Deputy

Race 4 - Arlington Million
2 - Tin Man

That $8 ticket would have paid - $648

I almost hit on an $8 ticket last Wednesday at Del Mar.

I hit 3 of 4 on an $1 ticket Sunday, (only $1.55 at the time on my on-line account) my non-winner ..Point Determined didn't take to the grass... I didn't have Get Funky at all ... I would have had to 5 deep in that race.

I had the Races 7,9,10... Windy in the 7th slam dunk, Dilemma was easy after Colonel Chick was scratched in the 9th... Jolly Spirit was a last min choice.. I liked both Jolly Spirit & Sylvan Hill in the 10th.. But, Sylvan Hill in the PP's show alot of 3rd's and 2nd's. With more than $1 to spend I would have went two deep here.

Sylvan Hill is one those of horses that has enough chances to win a maiden race and should HAVE TO grad. with dishonor to the NW2L level... With this race 10 chances to win...

Joe Coker said...
This comment has been removed by a blog administrator.
Anonymous said...

does anyone know what has happened to NIGHTMARE AFFAIR?he seems to have disappeared.

Anonymous said...

This is the last I can find on the web. He evidently had a trainer change, after a December 16, 2006 loss at Calder.

http://www.calderracecourse.com/news/barn_notes/barn_notes_04282007.html

since then, the trail ends. Hopefully he is OK.

if anything is found please contact whereswillie dot com

Anonymous said...

unfortunately that fouled up my link.
if interested google: "Nightmare Affair Out of Ponche Handicap"