A very wise and handsome man who drives around in a 1993 Subaru with no air-conditioning and a large quantity of old Big Mac wrappers on the floorboards, recently provided me with some notable facts that I thought was pertinent to one's ability to handicap horse races,
It takes 43 muscles to frown but only 17 to smile. It takes absolutely no muscles to look stupid.
I have been busy over the past week ... Busy kicking myself for being a complete dolt in my wagering strategy for the Travers' weekend. It was easy. I should have just put up the bucks, coughed on the chalk dust, collected my loot, and pretended that I was a genius. But no. In my quest to secure a potentially sizeable portion of the $1M NTRA Pick 4, I got carried away, wheeling in longshots that would provide some value if, in some strange voo-doo kind of way, they actually beat the likes of Henny Hughes or Bernardini. And if you are a wheeling-n-dealing Pick 3, Pick 4, Pick 6 individual, you know that when you get carried away or you are not paying attention to the cost of the ticket or you are busy chasing the 4-year-old giggling child who you had to bring along with you and you hit Print Ticket before you are really ready, the cost of the wager can get out of hand. And eventually, that $1 wager turns into a $16 wager which in turn only pays a paltry $29 for all of the hard work you did and you then begin to question the value of playing the multi-race wagers when your Granny always warned you that they're just sucker bets.
Saturday, one of my ol' reliables is racing: Nightmare Affair. I have been following this big gray horse since his first race and he generally never lets me down, considering that he wins 44% of the time (66% ITM). When he won the Smile Sprint Handicap at Calder last month at odds of 14-1, you better believe that it was a nice payday. I figured that I would never have the opportunity to see odds like that again in his career. However, it seems I have figured wrong. Nightmare Affair is turning up in Saratoga, racing in the Forego Handicap. I'm skeptical of his chances. Oh sure, he's racing against some of the same horses he beat in Calder, such as Pomeroy, but that's because it was at Calder. Nightmare Affair wins at Calder but ship him a few miles across town to Gulfstream, he loses. And now he's shipping to New York ...